How To Pick A Winner
In racing you are the king......if you have the knowledge.
There is a mass of information available, regarding the runners, riders and trainers, course conditions, betting odds and so on. It is easy to get overloaded and swamped with all this, unless you carefully evaluate the factors and use the data to choose the best horse for a particular race.
A look at form in the racing papers and on-line will enable you to compare the ability of one horse with another. Here are some key points to consider.
- Has the horse won within the last 30 days?
-Has the handicap weight been increased or decreased since it last ran/won?
-Is the horse a frequent winner or has it had a few lucky wins?
-How does this race compare with previous wins - pace, distance, course, conditions, etc.?
-What was the winning margin last time?
-Will the same jockey be riding this time?
A horse's ability on a racetrack can be affected by many factors such as age, fitness, training methods, barrier draw, weight to be carried, distance of the race, the ability of the jockey and so on.
On Good tracks fast horses will win more races than slow horses, however rain affected surfaces are a big equalizer. That is where the plodder without the quick turn of foot can win races. It just keeps plodding away at the same pace.
Heavy weights on rain affected tracks bog down many class horses. On Good tracks weight is not so significant. However when a horse faces a weight rise in combination with a change from a good barrier draw to a very wide barrier draw there is a multipling affect of disadvantages.
A horse's ability to carry weight is a critical factor which cannot
be ignored. Each horse has an individual weight level beyond which it
cannot perform in races to anywhere near its natural ability.
A horse's form on individual tracks can be affected by any number of factors
such as the weather, wind, track condition and rail positions. Some punters
even take into account the distance the horse has to be transported from
its stables to the race venue.
The ability of the jockey cannot be discounted when trying to evaluate a horse's chances of winning a race. A top jockey can make a big difference to the performance of a horse.
Course and distance are two main factors. If you know how the horse performs at a a certain distance and which to type of track it is suited (see UK courses for a track comparison) you will begin to get an idea of how the horse should perform, take into account weight carried, jockey, course conditions etc. etc. and you soon start to build up a picture of how one horse should perform against the rest.
Dont let your heart rule your head too often. You will often hear gamblers proudly announcing a big win, but what they don't often tell you is how much they have lost previously.
A flutter on the horses is good entertainment but if you don't want to get in trouble with your bank manager and you actually want to make some money, study the form carefully and follow, or develop a system. There are plenty of people offering 'proven' systems to 'beat the bookies'. Most of these follow common sense rules and as long as you are disciplined and stick to the basics there is no reason why you shouldn't come out ahead of the game.
The main rule : Don't bet more than you can afford.
Have a look at the place a bet link and try a bet today